Every occupation shortage list asks how many extra people are needed. None asks how much of the shortfall AI will absorb. The US, UK and EU now build AI assumptions into their employment projections. Australia's JSA publishes a disclaimer instead. Craig Fowler argues the SSN-AUKUS submarine build at Osborne is the proving ground: within one postcode it holds some of the least automatable trades in the economy and some of the most exposed program-office work. Net-of-AI forecas